Iran and Israel Pause Strikes in Fragile 2026 Ceasefire, but Both Warn of Retaliation

Iran and Israel have both said they are halting attacks on each other, after their worst exchange of fire since April’s truce. The move has revived hopes of an Iran Israel ceasefire in 2026, yet neither side sounds confident it will hold. Both warn of retaliation if the other breaks it.

A pause, not peace

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel had stopped firing for now. He chose his words carefully: the fight against Iran and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, he said, was far from over. His statement came just hours after Iran’s armed forces announced they had ended operations, saying they had already struck back hard at Israel.

Tehran did not call the halt a concession. It threatened far harsher retaliation if Israel launched fresh strikes, including in Lebanon, where Israeli troops are still fighting Hezbollah.

How the latest flare-up unfolded

The escalation began on Sunday, when Iran fired missiles at Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut. Israel responded in the early hours of Monday, targeting what it called military sites inside Iran. The Israel Iran strikes carried into Monday morning, with Iran firing more missiles toward Jerusalem and central and southern Israel, Israeli authorities said.

The Israel Defence Forces said a second wave of air strikes hit a petrochemical complex in the south-western Iranian city of Mahshahr. An Israeli military official claimed the site made chemicals used in ballistic missiles. Iran’s emergency services chief, Jafar Miadfar, told the Tasnim news agency that the strikes injured 14 people in Mahshahr and one in Tehran.

Lebanon was again caught in the middle. Its health ministry said an Israeli strike on the southern city of Tyre killed five people and wounded eight on Monday, and the Red Cross said four of its rescuers were among the injured. Hezbollah, in turn, said it had fired a barrage of rockets at Israeli army vehicles and soldiers in southern Lebanon.

Trump leans on Netanyahu

US President Donald Trump moved fast to claim a central role. Speaking to the BBC, he rejected the idea that Netanyahu had defied him, insisting the Israeli jets were already airborne. The White House confirmed Trump had phoned Netanyahu about the crisis, and an Israeli official said Israel paused its strikes at the president’s request.

Trump said he had simply urged common sense, arguing that Washington and Tehran were close to a major deal that would strip Iran of nuclear weapons. He made his leverage plain, claiming Netanyahu does what he is told. Axios reported that Trump privately warned the Israeli leader he could soon be fighting Iran alone.

Netanyahu pushed back in a televised address, saying he had reminded Trump that Israel has every right to defend itself. The Financial Times also reported that Trump believes Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US reaches with Iran, bluntly claiming, “I call all the shots.” Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, struck a defiant tone online, saying Israel would not tolerate being attacked in this way.

In public, Trump pressed both governments to stop shooting immediately, warning on Truth Social that the fighting was jeopardising fragile peace talks between Washington and Tehran. Those talks carry economic weight too: the war has already driven a surge in oil prices, and a deal could calm jittery energy markets.

Iran sets its own pace

Iran framed the tensions very differently. Its top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said in a Telegram post that ceasefire violations and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports were the real cause of the latest flare-up. He signalled that Tehran would move on its own terms, indicating it would fight when it chose to and negotiate when it chose to. The message was clear: Iran will not be rushed.

How the war began

The conflict erupted on 28 February, when Israel and the United States launched a joint attack on Iran that, according to Iranian accounts, killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials. The Iran Israel war then spread across the Middle East within days. Iran retaliated with missiles and drones aimed at Israel and at Gulf Arab states hosting US military bases.

Iran also effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy. That single decision sent global energy markets into turmoil, with effects felt far beyond the region. Lebanon was dragged in on 2 March, when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel over Khamenei’s killing. Israel answered with air strikes across Lebanon and a ground invasion of much of the country’s south.

A US-brokered ceasefire between the Israeli and Lebanese governments has failed to take hold. Hezbollah rejected it, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal first. In recent weeks, Washington has pushed Israel to ease its campaign to create space for a broader agreement with Iran, which wants any deal to cover Lebanon too.

The human cost

The toll has been heavy, though figures vary by source and are hard to verify. Iran’s Martyrs Foundation puts the number killed there at 3,468, while the Human Rights Activists News Agency estimates 3,636 deaths from US and Israeli attacks, including 1,701 civilians. Lebanon’s health ministry reports 3,613 people killed, without separating fighters from civilians.

Israeli authorities say 20 civilians have died in Iranian missile attacks, with four Palestinians killed in the occupied West Bank. Another 30 Israeli soldiers and four civilians have been killed along the Israel-Lebanon border. Local authorities report 29 deaths across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Thirteen US service members have also been killed, seven of them in Iranian attacks in the Gulf.

What happens next

For now, the guns are quieter, but the Iran Israel ceasefire of 2026 rests on shaky ground. Both sides have promised retaliation if it collapses, and the unresolved fighting in Lebanon could reignite the wider war at any moment. Much depends on whether Washington and Tehran can turn this pause into a lasting deal. Until then, the region waits, braced for whatever comes next.