FIFA World Cup 2026 Favourites: Who Will Win the Trophy?
The biggest football tournament ever starts on 11 June, and the race for the trophy is wide open. So who are the World Cup 2026 favourites? With 48 teams chasing glory across the United States, Canada and Mexico, a handful of nations stand out. Here is how the contenders shape up.
Spain and France lead the way
Spain top most betting markets at around +475. The reigning European champions blend a settled side with the most exciting young talent in the game. France sit right behind at +500. Les Bleus reached the last final, carry huge depth, and still build everything around Kylian Mbappe at his peak.
In truth, these two are neck and neck. Both have the quality to win it, and neither will want to meet the other before the final.
England, Brazil and the holders
England are the third favourites at around +650. With Thomas Tuchel now in charge and stars like Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane, belief is high after years of near misses. Brazil follow at +850, packed with flair through Vinicius Jr and Raphinha. Then come the holders, Argentina, at around +900. If you want to know more, our guide to the players to watch breaks down the stars who could decide the whole tournament.
Can anyone defend the crown?
Argentina face history. No nation has retained the World Cup since Brazil in 1962. Lionel Messi remains their talisman, but repeating is brutally hard. Still, with their winning mentality, you can never rule them out.
The dark horses
Beyond the big five, Portugal sit around +1000 and Germany always lurk. The expanded 48-team format also gives ambitious outsiders more games and more belief. As a result, an early upset or two looks likely before the knockouts even begin.
What the betting really means
Odds are not predictions; they reflect money and probability. Spain and France being short simply means bettors rate them highest right now. Yet the gap between the top five is small. A single injury, a red card or a penalty shootout can flip everything. That is the beauty of the World Cup. Favourites have flopped before, and unfancied sides have gone all the way. So treat the odds as a guide, not gospel. The smart move is to enjoy the group stage, see how teams settle, then reassess before the knockouts. By then, the real contenders usually reveal themselves.
So who will win?
On paper, Spain and France are the teams to beat, with England the strongest outside bet. Yet tournament football rarely follows the script. Form, fitness and a moment of magic often decide it. One thing is certain: with the final at MetLife Stadium on 19 July, the next six weeks promise drama from start to finish.
